System Overview

What is a Prediction Market?

A prediction market is a market where people bet on the outcome of future events. Participants buy and sell shares representing different outcomes, and the market price reflects the collective probability of each outcome.

Generic Prediction Markets:

• Will candidate X win the election? (Polymarket)

• Will a sports team win the championship? (PredictIt)

• Will a company's stock reach $100? (Augur)

Advantages of Specialization

Generic Markets	Hivebets (Four.meme Focus)
Predict everything	Predict one thing really well
No domain expertise	Deep understanding of trenches
Generic oracle data	BSC memecoin-optimized data
Broad, shallow markets	Deep, liquid Four.meme markets
Unfocused community	Trenches-native community

Bottom line: We're not trying to be everything to everyone. We're the best at predicting Four.meme token success on BNB Chain.

---

How Hivebets Markets Work

Market Structure

Each Hivebets market has:

1. A Token - The memecoin being predicted (e.g., 哈基米)

2. A Target - Market cap goal (e.g., $100M)

3. A Deadline - When betting closes (e.g., October 30, 2025)

4. Two Outcomes - YES (reaches target) or NO (doesn't reach target)

Example Market

Token: 哈基米
Question: Will 哈基米 reach $100M mcap before October 30, 2025?

YES Pool: 10 BNB (67% of total)
NO Pool: 5 BNB (33% of total)
Total Pool: 15 BNB

If YES wins: YES bettors split 5 BNB (NO pool) proportionally
If NO wins: NO bettors split 10 BNB (YES pool) proportionally

---

Betting Lifecycle

Phase 1: Open Market

Duration: From market creation → deadline

Users can:

• Place bets on YES or NO

• See live odds

• Check pool sizes

• Cannot withdraw bets

• Cannot change bets

Phase 2: Waiting for Resolution

Duration: Deadline → resolution trigger

Market status:

• Betting closed (deadline passed)

• Awaiting oracle data

• Buffer period (1 hour)

• No claims yet

Phase 3: Resolved

Duration: After resolution → forever

Market outcome:

• Final outcome determined (YES or NO)

• Winners can claim payouts

• Losers get nothing

• No more changes possible

---

How Outcomes Are Determined

Hivebets uses Hivebets Oracle for trustless resolution:

Oracle Resolution Process

1. Deadline Passes

   • No more bets allowed

   • Market enters buffer period

2. Buffer Period (1 hour)

   • Ensures oracle data is available

   • Prevents frontrunning

3. Anyone Triggers Resolution

   • Calls resolveFromHivebets Oracle() function

   • No special permissions needed

4. Oracle Checks Data

   • Fetches market cap from Hivebets Oracle

   • Compares to target

   • Returns YES or NO

5. Market Settles

   • Outcome recorded on-chain

   • Winners can claim

   • Process complete

Learn more about Oracle Resolution →

---

Parimutuel System

Hivebets uses parimutuel betting, where:

• All bets go into a pool

• Winners split the losing pool

• No house odds or bookmaker

Example Calculation

Market: Will $4 reach $444M?

Bets Placed:
- Alice bets 1 BNB on YES
- Bob bets 2 BNB on YES  
- Charlie bets 3 BNB on NO

YES Pool: 3 BNB (50%)
NO Pool: 3 BNB (50%)
Total: 6 BNB

Scenario 1: YES Wins
- Alice gets: 1 + (3 × 1/3) - 2% = 1.98 BNB
- Bob gets: 2 + (3 × 2/3) - 2% = 3.96 BNB
- Charlie gets: 0 BNB (lost)
- Platform fee: 0.06 BNB

Scenario 2: NO Wins
- Charlie gets: 3 + (3 × 3/3) - 2% = 5.88 BNB
- Alice gets: 0 BNB (lost)
- Bob gets: 0 BNB (lost)
- Platform fee: 0.12 BNB

Learn more about Parimutuel Betting →

---

Smart Contract Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│         User's Wallet               │
│      (MetaMask, Rabby, etc.)        │
└──────────────┬──────────────────────┘
               │
               │ Connects to
               ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│      Hivebets               │
│      (Frontend Interface)           │
└──────────────┬──────────────────────┘
               │
               │ Calls
               ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│     Binary Market Contract          │
│   (BSC Mainnet Smart Contract)      │
│                                     │
│  Functions:                         │
│  - bet(yes/no)                      │
│  - claim()                          │
│  - resolveFromHivebets Oracle()              │
└──────────────┬──────────────────────┘
               │
               │ Reads from
               ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│      hivebets Oracle                  │
│  (Decentralized Data Provider)      │
│                                     │
│  Provides: Token market cap data    │
└─────────────────────────────────────┘

---

Key Principles

1. Trustless

No central authority controls market outcomes. Smart contracts and oracles handle everything automatically.

2. Transparent

All bets, pools, and outcomes are visible on the blockchain. Anyone can verify.

3. Non-Custodial

We never hold your funds. Everything happens through smart contract interactions you approve.

4. Automated

Markets resolve automatically using oracle data. No manual intervention required.

5. Fair

Max bet limits prevent whale manipulation. Parimutuel system ensures fair odds.

---

Advantages Over Traditional Prediction Markets

Feature	Hivebets	Traditional
Trust	Trustless (smart contracts)	Requires trust in platform
Transparency	100% on-chain	Opaque backend
Resolution	Automated (oracle)	Manual or subjective
Fees	0.5% on winnings	5-10%+ on all bets
Custody	Non-custodial	Platform holds funds
Censorship	Resistant	Can ban users
Verification	Anyone can verify	Must trust platform

---

Common Use Cases

Speculation

"I think 哈基米 will moon before October. Let me bet on it!"

Hedging

"I bought 哈基米 tokens. Let me bet NO to hedge my risk."

Market Research

"What does the crowd think? Let me check the odds."

Arbitrage

"Odds are mispriced. There's an opportunity here."

---

Market Dynamics

Early vs Late Betting

Early Bets (right after market creation):

• Better odds (less competition)

• More time for research

• More uncertainty

• Longer wait for resolution

Late Bets (near deadline):

• More information available

• Shorter wait for results

• Worse odds (pools already filled)

• Less time to react

Odds Movement

Odds change as bets are placed:

• More YES bets → YES odds decrease (worse payout)

• More NO bets → YES odds increase (better payout)

• Self-balancing mechanism

---

Safety Features

Max Bet Limits

0.5 BNB per wallet per side prevents:

• Whale manipulation

• Market cornering

• Unfair advantage for big players

Deadline Enforcement

• No bets after deadline

• Prevents frontrunning oracle

• Ensures fair resolution

Cancellation Protection

• Markets can only be cancelled before deadline

• If cancelled, 100% refunds to all bettors

• Prevents rug pulls after outcome known

---

Next Steps

Learn more about specific aspects:

Parimutuel Betting - How payouts are calculated Oracle Resolution - How markets resolve Platform Fees - Fee structure explained

Market Rules - Complete market rules

---

Ready to bet? Place your first bet →